What this tool shows

A directional view based on Cash App Borrow's lending data from prior quarters of how hypothetical changes to the macro environment could move our Cash App Borrow lending portfolio. Our internal credit risk score is designed to track our customers' financial activity within Cash App, and how customer financial activity moves with the broader economy. As macroeconomic conditions worsen, our aggregate risk score increases, the distribution of customers shifts toward higher-risk bands, and our underwriting policy, which is score-driven, is designed to tighten automatically. This tool lets a reader see how those linked changes can show up in originations and credit losses under different hypothetical macro paths modeled on Moody's scenarios and allows a reader to select different management postures.

Two underwriting postures. Block's underwriting is score-driven, so some tightening is designed to happen automatically as customer risk scores worsen. The management response control sets how much Block tightens on top of that automatic response: from no additional tightening (preserving credit availability, letting loss rates rise) to tightening enough to hold loss rates near their baseline level (at the cost of a sharper decline in originations). In practice we would expect management's response to be a blend of the two, both at a point in time and over time. Management tightening (%) defines how much Block further tightens credit on top of the portfolio's automatic score-driven response. The ramp-duration control sets how long the tighter posture stays in place before returning to current credit policy.

What this is not. Not a forecast and not a guarantee for future performance. All charts use indexed, rounded outputs. This reflects the Cash App Borrow program only, not other Block lending programs. The scenarios are illustrative, and environmental factors, management actions, and other factors are subject to change. See here for important information on this tool that could cause actual outcomes to differ materially from those reflected in the scenarios.

Interactive sliders

Baseline

Baseline is the reference point for every chart, not a forecast. It is the case where macro conditions do not deteriorate from where they are now and credit policy stays as it is today. Every value is shown relative to baseline, which is marked B on the charts.

Management tightness (%)

Management tightness is how much we tighten origination policy on top of the tightening our score-driven underwriting does on its own. At 0% there is no intervention. The model, the eligibility policy, and the decision thresholds stay as they were run, credit limits do not move up or down, and the distribution of the score is the only thing that changes. This is a hypothetical counterfactual and the loss-maximizing bookend of the range, not a plan, expectation, or representation of how the portfolio would be managed. Even here the controls self-correct, since the same thresholds admit fewer customers at lower limits as scores deteriorate, so originations decline and losses peak and then recede. Loss rates still rise in the short term, since the customers we continue to extend to are riskier than baseline. At 100% we tighten enough to hold the loss rate roughly constant, at the cost of a sharper decline in originations. Neither bookend is realistic; a real response would be a mix of the two. 0% = no intervention. 100% = proactive tightening.

Ramp duration

How long the tighter regime stays in place before we restore baseline risk tolerance. Longer durations protect against losses for longer; they also compound the originations cost.

Origination and loss sensitivity

As you click on the Moody's scenarios on the left sidebar and use the interactive sliders, the green line on these charts shift to show indexed views of how originations (i.e. the amount of loan principal extended) and credit losses (i.e. the amount of loan principal not repaid) could move with the related scenario and management posture selected in the sidebar. Both charts are shown relative to baseline, marked B.

Origination Index
How new lending could move under the selected scenario and management tightness. Tighter postures reduce originations more during the downturn.
No intervention
Proactive tightening
Blended response
Indexed to B. The blended green line representing a decrease in originations based on the Moody's scenarios, moves between the two endpoints as the management-response slider changes.
Losses
B = baseline loss exposure. Above B = elevated loss relative to baseline.
No intervention
Proactive tightening
Blended response
B = baseline loss exposure. Indexed to B. Relative loss exposure.

How our risk score has moved historically with the macro environment

Macroeconomic conditions show up in our aggregate risk score because the score moves with underlying consumer financial activity, which is the empirical link that anchors the scenarios above.

Aggregate customer risk score vs. Consumer Sentiment
Block's aggregate customer risk score (left axis) overlaid against consumer sentiment, using the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (right axis). Monthly observations. Block's aggregate customer risk score shown in reverse, so that both lines fall when economic conditions worsen and rise as they recover. The score is derived from customers' financial activity and does not take sentiment as an input. The two series move together over time without perfectly tracking each other at every point in time. Sentiment also reacts to events that may not change how customers earn, spend, and repay, which is what produced the divergence in spring 2025 after the April tariff announcements.
Historical
Block aggregate risk score (green line)
Consumer Sentiment (gray dotted line)

Hypothetical macroeconomic scenario paths

The three named hypothetical scenarios are drawn from a third-party recession scenario set; rounded directional paths shown.

Source. Mild / Moderate / Severe correspond to Moody's Analytics alternative scenarios: S2 ("Slower Near-Term Growth," ~75th-percentile downside), S3 ("Moderate Recession," ~90th-percentile downside), and S4 ("Protracted Slump," ~96th-percentile downside). Moody's scenarios are widely used by U.S. financial institutions for CECL credit-loss provisioning and regulatory stress testing.

What these scenarios do and do not capture. Moody's scenarios describe broad economic conditions such as unemployment, growth, sentiment, and credit cycles. Block's customers are part of the broader U.S. consumer population these indicators measure, so the scenarios are a reasonable basis for illustrating how macro conditions could affect our portfolio. However, they do not capture all risks specific to our customer mix, product-level dynamics, or underwriting changes that we may make in response.

Consumer Sentiment Index
Consumer sentiment path by scenario.
Unemployment Path
Monthly path by scenario.
Baseline
Mild
Moderate
Severe

How the customer base shifts across hypothetical scenarios, and how tightening responds

Most of our customer base sits at the healthier end of the score range. In more severe hypothetical scenarios, individual scores drift and the whole distribution shifts toward higher risk, consistent with the historical relationship shown in Section 3. In response, management can move the eligibility cutoff, the minimum score at which we originate new loans, to hold the average loss rate of the eligible book roughly constant. Use the sliders to step through scenarios and choose how strongly management tightens.

Customer risk score distribution under the selected scenario
Share of loan principal by customer risk score: baseline (green) versus the selected scenario (dark line). Customers beyond the cutoff are not eligible for new loans.
← higher risk Customer risk score bins lower risk →
Baseline
Under selected scenario
Eligibility cutoff
BaselineMildModerateSevere
Move right to step from the baseline economy toward more severe hypothetical scenarios. Risk scores across the customer base drift toward higher risk.
Tightening is a tradeoff: a tighter cutoff shrinks the eligible book but contains the loss rate, while no tightening preserves the book and lets the loss rate rise. This illustration shows how that choice plays out across the whole distribution rather than as a single average.
Illustrative only. Values are indexed to B. Risk scores are shown as coarse score groups; exact underwriting cutoffs and score scales are not shown.

Important information regarding forward-looking statements and scenario analysis

This dashboard contains hypothetical and illustrative scenario analyses based on historical data and user-selected assumptions. The outputs generated by this tool are provided for informational and illustrative purposes only and are not intended to predict or project future results. These scenarios and analyses are limited to Block's Cash App Borrow consumer portfolio, and does not include any other Block consumer lending portfolio. Other Block consumer lending portfolios, including Afterpay, may perform differently than Cash App Borrow.

The scenarios presented reflect simplified assumptions and selected variables and do not represent management's expectations, forecasts, internal planning models or estimates of future performance. Actual outcomes may differ materially from those reflected in the scenarios due to a variety of factors, including changes in economic conditions; market and competitive dynamics; consumer behavior; regulatory developments; customer and product mix; underwriting, operational, risk management, and other business decisions made by management that could differ materially from those reflected in these scenarios; and other risks and uncertainties affecting the Company's business.

Nothing contained in this dashboard should be interpreted as guidance, projections, or a guarantee of future financial performance. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the information or assumptions used in this tool.

Investors should refer to the Company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including the risk factors described in its most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q, for a discussion of other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by these illustrative scenarios.

Non-GAAP financial measures

This dashboard may include certain non-GAAP financial measures. These measures are provided as supplemental information and should not be considered as a substitute for, or superior to, financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.

Forward-looking non-GAAP measures included in this tool are based on assumptions and estimates that are subject to uncertainty. A reconciliation of such forward-looking non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is not available without unreasonable effort due to the variability and complexity of the excluded items.